Greece will leave the European Union by 2012

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• Gedusa estimated 50% on 2011-09-13
• Gedusa said “http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-12/greece-s-risk-of-default-increases-to-98-as-european-debt-crisis-deepens.html” on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “little more specific? we have a bunch of open predictions as to states dropping the euro, greece defaulting on debt, etc.” on 2011-09-14
• Gedusa said “Hmm. I’m not sure how to make it better. Sorry, should’ve checked for open predictions. I can withdraw it if you’d like.” on 2011-09-15
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-19
• faws estimated 4% and said “Greece might default and/or leave the currency union, but they have little reason for leaving the Union. ” on 2011-09-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.