I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-10-28
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% and said “updated based on reading the introduction” on 2011-10-29
• Artis estimated 62% on 2011-11-07
• gwern estimated 40% and said “reasoning: if he read it, he would have judged this correct. he hasn’t. hence, he has not read it yet. most of the period has expired, reduces chances he will read it in the remaining handful of days” on 2011-11-20
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-27.