“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-12-31
• wedrifid estimated 30% on 2011-12-31
• Mqrius estimated 50% and said “Let’s hope not though.” on 2012-01-01
• Larklight estimated 70% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud bitcoinica or bitfloor seem to me to count; marking right” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.