Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “at least below $1000: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5544” on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “background: http://lesswrong.com/lw/9em/open_thread_january_1531_2012/5s7c” on 2012-01-28
• RobertLumley estimated 25% and said “There’s a government prize for $1000, and once it reaches $300 or so, I don’t think there’s that much incentive to get it much lower. It will drop off significantly, at least.” on 2012-01-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-09-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “going to be close” on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 38% on 2018-12-15
• Baeboo estimated 25% on 2018-12-15
• krazemon estimated 5% and said “Obviously I have the benefit of entering my prediction much later than others on this one… Current lowest cost for a consumer is Veritas at $600.” on 2019-08-31
• krazemon said “This seems likely to be false (still 8 days to go of course), but what’s the authoritative source?” on 2019-12-24
• gwern said “Illumina is still only talking about a $100 genome: https://scipol.org/content/illumina-says-it-can-deliver-100-genome-%E2%80%94-soon Veritas has gone as low as $200 on sales. but no one is claiming regular $100 WGS.” on 2020-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.