GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-02-07
• Leo estimated 15% on 2012-02-08
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 25% and said “I’d be quite surprised.” on 2012-02-15
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% and said “She’s collected the requisite number of signatures.” on 2012-03-14
• Leo estimated 0% on 2012-03-30
• gwern said “still in, WP says” on 2012-04-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-10.