A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination.

Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-03-01
• gwern estimated 3% and said “see James Britt https://plus.google.com/u/0/103530621949492999968/posts/HERkbtL22YH” on 2012-03-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2012-03-02
• HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2012-03-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2012-03-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-03-01.