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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 35% on 2012-04-08
  • gwern on 2012-04-08
  • ahartell estimated 20% on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 60% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 15% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
  • DEA7TH estimated 5% and said “Not a good way to hide a dangerous weapon.on 2014-02-28
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.