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There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform

Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

  • freyley estimated 65% on 2009-10-19
  • jes5199 estimated 40% and said “I’m in favor of it, but I just don’t believe it will happen.” on 2009-10-19
  • jshiga estimated 15% on 2009-10-19
  • freyley said “i’d like an interface so that I could revise my bet now, and find out how my prediction ability does with respect to how far away it is.” on 2009-10-30
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-07-29.