Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).

Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.

• robo45h estimated 90% on 2009-11-13
• robo45h on 2009-11-13
• gwern estimated 85% and said “*its” on 2010-07-29
• robo45h changed their prediction from “Iran's current regime will continue it's nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).” on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “has not been overthrown; can’t find any evidence that nuclear fuel bank proposal was accepted; nor has civilian program been shut down. marking right” on 2010-11-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-11-13.