IEA: US to become world's top oil producer in 5 years

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-05-11.

• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-11-12
• RandomThinker said ““The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030” ” on 2012-11-12
• RandomThinker said “Don’t know the data but it seems optimistic. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html” on 2012-11-12
• RandomThinker said “Hmm looks closer than I thought at first. 1. Russia 10.5m, 2. Saudi 8.8m, 3. 7.8m http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production” on 2012-11-12
• RandomThinker said “I’m still betting against any prediction exciting enough to be an NYT article headline.” on 2012-11-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-11-13
• Hurt estimated 35% on 2012-11-26
• Qiaochu estimated 20% and said “Correcting for the fact that the people involved in evaluating this kind of thing have an incentive to exaggerate how good the news is. ” on 2012-11-26
• RandomThinker estimated 38% and said “Only because I think Saudis will cut production soon. While the US cannot. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/80192” on 2015-03-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-03-29
• RandomThinker said “Looks like it already happened when the prediction is made. No wonder why NYT actually got one righ!” on 2015-05-11
• RandomThinker said “http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/jan/04/amy-klobuchar/klobuchar-says-us-worlds-no-1-oil-producer/” on 2015-05-11
• RandomThinker said “There’s a chart in that link that shows US overtook Saudi Arabia in late 2012. Wasn’t a prediction at all.” on 2015-05-11
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2015-05-11.