Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion)

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

• tjross estimated 63% on 2010-03-23
• kassey estimated 50% on 2010-03-23
• maskath@hotmail.com estimated 70% on 2010-06-04
• Houshalter estimated 80% on 2010-06-13
• Pavitra estimated 90% on 2010-08-03
• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-03
• Jennifer said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452” on 2010-09-29
• anonym estimated 80% on 2010-11-27
• gimpf estimated 70% on 2010-12-13
• Larks estimated 60% on 2011-01-01
• Nic_Smith estimated 60% and said “Following Intrade on this one, which tends to fluctuate around 60% (Currently at 63%)” on 2011-05-23
• Nic_Smith estimated 56% and said “Still following Intrade — Obama’s down slightly but noticeably for roughly the last month and is at 55% today” on 2011-08-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2011-08-21
• Nic_Smith estimated 50% on 2011-10-22
• Nic_Smith estimated 60% on 2012-02-11
• jbeshir estimated 58% on 2012-09-10
• Nic_Smith estimated 80% on 2012-09-28
• Pablo estimated 78% and said “Intrade: 78.3” on 2012-09-29
• HonoreDB   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.