2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2015-09-16
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2016-07-29” and changed their prediction from “2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. Hillary” on 2015-09-16
• JoshuaZ said “Is product of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/121743 and product of 1-prob of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/139714 here, operating under assumption that they are independent (but plausibly they aren’t independent). ” on 2015-09-16
• JoshuaZ said “https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/488187/2430436 bet with nadrewod I get $25 if it doesn’t happen, they get $15 if it does. ” on 2015-09-16
• Medea estimated 14% on 2015-10-08
• qznc estimated 5% on 2015-11-11
• Andrew MacFie estimated 9% on 2015-11-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-05-06
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-20
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-07-20
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-27.