In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1456” on 2010-07-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-05-24
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
• WilliamKiely estimated 70% and said “Beware of scope insensitivity. Didn’t put much thought into my 70%.” on 2016-06-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2019-01-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 69% on 2019-01-14
• Baeboo estimated 40% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 30% on 2020-11-20