“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1623” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=696373&z=1281597764564 at 10%” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1625” on 2010-08-12
• Afforess said “Boeing was awarded the contract → http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022404699.html” on 2015-09-12
• Afforess   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-09-12.