“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=726974&z=1281597954544 at 4.1%” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1627 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1628” on 2010-08-12
• gwern changed their prediction from ““BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy” —Intrade” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1629 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1630 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1631” on 2010-08-12
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.