“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1626 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1628” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=729022&z=1281598002995 at 12%” on 2010-08-12
• gwern changed their prediction from ““BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy” —Intrade” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1629 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1630 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1631” on 2010-08-12
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2010-12-12
• gwern said “no news about bankruptcies in the last month, intrade at ~0%; marking this & UK wrong” on 2011-06-19
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-19.