“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 6% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1626 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1627” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=729021&z=1281598095281 at 17% (!)” on 2010-08-12
• gwern changed their prediction from ““BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy” —Intrade” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1629 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1630 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1631” on 2010-08-12
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-12-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.