“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

• gwern estimated 4% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1629 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1631” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “US bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1626 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1627 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1628” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=729024&z=1281598695187 not trading” on 2010-08-12
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2010-12-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-19.