“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 7% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1629 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1630” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “US bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1626 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1627 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1628” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=729023&z=1281598842665 not trading” on 2010-08-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.