“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706211&z=1281870647062 at 90%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1644” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1645” on 2010-08-15
• kallman estimated 78% and said “Doesn’t need to be year in year out for the average to be rising.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “ask is currently at 97% on intrade. going to jump the gun and just mark this as right already” on 2011-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-01.