“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=705989&z=1281871324783 at 60%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1649 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1648 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1647” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “currently trading at 1%. like #1644, going to mark as wrong” on 2012-01-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-05.