“Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706205&z=1281871374912 at 55%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1649 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1648 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1646” on 2010-08-15
• Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2013-01-02
• Tuxedage said “Wait, crap, I misread and assumed it was 2013. Sigh.” on 2013-01-02
• Tuxedage said “Correct. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/8” on 2013-01-12
• Tuxedage   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-13.