“Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706208&z=1281871578402 at 61%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1648 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1647 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1646” on 2010-08-15
• waveman estimated 65% on 2014-01-01
• waveman estimated 65% on 2014-01-01
• gwern said “I was going to freeride on Intrade’s judgment for this one… does anyone remember where they even got their temperature data?” on 2015-01-02
• waveman said “NASA here http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt but they don’t have Dec yet. I am tracking with change detection.com monitor” on 2015-01-03
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-16.
• kuudes said “http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12” on 2015-01-16
• waveman said “Thanks Kuudes. ” on 2015-01-16