“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dq9?c=1” on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1671” on 2010-08-19
• Athrithalix estimated 96% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 98% on 2019-01-10
• MultiplyByZer0 estimated 90% on 2019-01-11
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2019-01-11
• Baeboo estimated 100% on 2019-12-12
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.