A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

  • Richard_Kennaway estimated 99% on 2010-08-18
  • Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.” on 2010-08-18
  • Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. By “general purpose AI” I mean what is also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI) or “AGI” (http://” on 2010-08-18
  • Richard_Kennaway said “Also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI)) or “AGI” (http://www.agiri.org/)).on 2010-08-18
  • gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-19
  • gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670on 2010-08-19
  • Larks estimated 98% on 2010-09-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-17
  • Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-13
  • Grognor estimated 98% on 2011-12-06
  • Tuxedage estimated 97% on 2013-01-03
  • pranomostro estimated 98% on 2019-01-10
  • MultiplyByZer0 estimated 100% on 2019-01-11
  • Baeboo estimated 98% on 2019-01-11
  • qznc estimated 99% on 2019-12-12
  • Baeboo estimated 100% on 2019-12-12
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
  • Bruno Parga said “Oh shoot, I messed up with the negative in the prediction. My bad.on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
  • Richard_Kennaway   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
  • MultiplyByZer0   judged this prediction right on 2020-06-12.

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