A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
- Richard_Kennaway estimated 99% on 2010-08-18
- Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.” on 2010-08-18
- Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. By “general purpose AI” I mean what is also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI) or “AGI” (http://” on 2010-08-18
- Richard_Kennaway said “Also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI)) or “AGI” (http://www.agiri.org/)).” on 2010-08-18
- gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-19
- gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670” on 2010-08-19
- Larks estimated 98% on 2010-09-29
- JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-17
- Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-13
- Grognor estimated 98% on 2011-12-06
- Tuxedage estimated 97% on 2013-01-03
- pranomostro estimated 98% on 2019-01-10
- MultiplyByZer0 estimated 100% on 2019-01-11
- Baeboo estimated 98% on 2019-01-11
- qznc estimated 99% on 2019-12-12
- Baeboo estimated 100% on 2019-12-12
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
- Bruno Parga said “Oh shoot, I messed up with the negative in the prediction. My bad.” on 2020-01-01
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
- Richard_Kennaway judged this prediction right on 2020-01-01.
- MultiplyByZer0 judged this prediction right on 2020-06-12.