“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1681” on 2010-08-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% and said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading#Greenhouse_gases” on 2019-01-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-20.