Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• kallman estimated 85% and said “Doesn’t look too hot for the man though. Maybe the 2nd guy to serve 2 non-consec. terms, though? Or Hilary would run again, pah.” on 2010-11-23
• Saliency estimated 90% on 2011-06-09
• Konkvistador estimated 90% on 2011-07-21
• muflax estimated 90% on 2011-11-05
• lavalamp estimated 75% on 2011-11-10
• smijer estimated 95% and said “Should be split into two predictions – case obama 2nd term and no improvement in economy is the interesting one. I estimate 85% on this.” on 2012-01-10
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-20” on 2012-01-20
• ahartell estimated 90% on 2012-04-09
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-10-20” on 2012-10-20
• RandomThinker said “Very interesting prediction. How to judge?” on 2012-11-08
• smijer said “Don’t know how to judge really – my personal impression from media reports is that the win came in spite of the troubled economy, not due to improvement in the economy. I would guess I was wrong. ” on 2012-11-08
• Torquil   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-24.