One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2013-03-22
• RandomThinker said “There was an old prediction of this, which I didn’t think much of. But now it’s much closer. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2686” on 2013-03-22
• RandomThinker said “US starting to regulate bitcoins. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-21/us-begins-regulating-bitcoin-will-consider-virtual-transactions-money-laundering” on 2013-03-22
• RandomThinker said “I would consider it “banned” if it were forced to change to lose an essential characteristic, like anonymity.” on 2013-03-22
• Sarokrae estimated 60% on 2013-04-04
• ctp estimated 60% on 2013-04-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2013-04-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% and said “running out of time” on 2016-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.