'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis

Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-05-16
• gwern said “governments no doubt hate bitcoin; counterpoints are other private currencies, general government slowness” on 2011-05-16
• papermachine estimated 80% on 2011-05-16
• Pavitra estimated 15% on 2011-05-16
• Houshalter   judged this prediction right on 2011-05-17.
• Houshalter   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-17.
• Houshalter estimated 75% on 2011-05-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% and said “Timing seems too short. ” on 2011-05-24
• gwern said “Relevant: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/hp3jm/large_german_lobby_organization_supports_ban_on/” on 2011-06-05
• gwern said “Also relevant: http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Schumer-Calls-on-Feds-to-Shut-Down-Online-Drug-Marketplace-123187958.html” on 2011-06-06
• Glenn estimated 60% and said “how do you ban “bitcoins” I wonder… sue & ddos exchanges, ddos dnsseed & supernodes, poison DNS…? crytography prevails” on 2011-06-09
• JoshuaZ said “Glenn, You ban corporations from using them. Companies wanting to stay legitimate will fear of audits. Also make conspiracy prosecutions. ” on 2011-06-09
• agbell estimated 50% and said “Ban via making the selling of bit coins in exchange for USD illegal” on 2011-08-01
• Konkvistador estimated 60% on 2011-08-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-11
• lavalamp estimated 25% and said “bitcoin is growing too slowly” on 2011-11-10
• Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2012-10-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “I’m assuming this means one or more governments will ban the sale of bitcoins, rather than all or most.” on 2012-10-16
• RandomThinker said “bitcoin isn’t important enough to ban, but there are a lot of “governments” out there. Can you modify to include national govts of major countries? e.g. not city councils or small 3rd world countries?” on 2012-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-10-17
• kiba estimated 0% on 2012-11-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-11-07
• kilobug estimated 1% and said “But too easy when it’s only 6 days before ;)” on 2012-11-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-15.
• RandomThinker said “Closer now. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-21/us-begins-regulating-bitcoin-will-consider-virtual-transactions-money-laundering” on 2013-03-22
• Tuxedage said “5” on 2013-04-08