“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 31% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1683” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-10
• Pablo estimated 0% and said “President is subordinate to Supreme Leader: https://www.google.com/search?q=highest+office+iran&oq=highest+office+iran&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.4049j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8” on 2019-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.