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There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 3% on 2010-08-26
  • gwern said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1714” on 2010-08-26
  • gwern said “This is actually a tiny bit plausible to me because there are 2 possible sources – drug wars spilling over from Mexico and rightwing militias.” on 2010-08-26
  • gwern changed their prediction from “There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants.” on 2010-08-26
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-10
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.