Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012.

Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

• SilentWarrior estimated 80% on 2010-09-01
• gwern estimated 80% and said “This prediction was made long ago: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452” on 2010-09-01
• aki__ estimated 75% on 2010-09-02
• Larks estimated 55% on 2010-09-29
• anonym estimated 80% on 2010-11-27
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.