Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war)

Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-01.

  • kuudes estimated 0% on 2016-01-15
  • kuudes said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176775on 2016-01-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-01-15
  • Waring estimated 0% on 2016-01-16
  • timujin estimated 2% on 2016-01-16
  • Medea estimated 1% on 2016-01-16
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2016-01-17
  • bobpage said “Wars are fought without declarations of war these days e.g. eastern Ukraineon 2016-01-20
  • bobpage said “The history of “declarations” http://www.jstor.org/stable/2190682?seq=1on 2016-01-20
  • bobpage estimated 1% and said “< 1%on 2016-01-20
  • lalaithion estimated 0% on 2016-01-21
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% and said “Less than 1% chance of any military operations I think, and much less of an actual declaration of war.on 2016-01-21
  • ChristianKl estimated 0% and said “Given that even wars that are openly fought frequently don’t get declared these days, I find that very unlikely.on 2016-01-22
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 0% on 2016-01-26
  • jasticE estimated 0% on 2016-01-27
  • daniel74f estimated 0% on 2016-01-27
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2016-01-27
  • leo_gri estimated 0% on 2016-03-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-11
  • Temeraire estimated 0% on 2016-04-20
  • two2thehead estimated 0% on 2016-05-12
  • ioannes   judged this prediction right on 2016-06-24.
  • ioannes   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-06-24.
  • ioannes estimated 0% on 2016-06-24
  • kuudes said “Dang, a bug on predictionbook.com causes only the first judgement to hold, so we all lose on 100% bracket. :-(on 2016-06-24
  • bobpage said “OH, so that’s what’s been screwing up my graphon 2016-06-25
  • bobpage said “@kuudes, you should file a bug for that, I don’t see it in the GitHub issueson 2016-06-25
  • kuudes said “@bobpage sorry, I don’t have a github acco and such seems to be required. Are there other ways to file a bug report?on 2016-06-25
  • two2thehead said “DOH! Kuudes I got what you meant. :(on 2016-06-25
  • themusicgod1 said “https://github.com/tricycle/predictionbook/issues/100on 2016-06-25
  • kuudes said “Thanks, themusicgod1!on 2016-06-25
  • kuudes said “Another bug is that the average percentage on predictionslist seems not to be the average but the first prediction percentage (at least on multiple lists).on 2016-06-25
  • themusicgod1 said “can you give an example? I am not really sure what you mean by that.on 2016-06-25
  • kuudes said “ie http://predictionbook.com/ has in Popular… list " Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 82% confidence )" when 82% is just the 1st in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178401 and all later est’s are lesson 2016-06-26
  • bobpage   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-01.

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