Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2016-02-03
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-09” and changed their prediction from “Jeb Bush will the next President-elect” on 2016-02-03
• davidmanheim estimated 1% and said “Contested convention + Compromise Candidate vs. Sanders, or something similar. Unlikely, but possible.” on 2016-02-03
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBg6hU5zXDA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwb_McI74rY if he somehow becomes President-elect I will have to assume the universe is broken, as in The Quiet Earth” on 2016-02-03
• JoshuaZ said “Related predictions http://predictionbook.com/predictions/115962 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/9551 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/115449” on 2016-02-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-02-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2016-02-04
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “Trump is looking weak and candidates are dropping like flies. Jeb is No1 in nominations and cash. He will go the distance, only 2 other candidates can.” on 2016-02-04
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdCYMvaUcrA” on 2016-02-04
• Waring estimated 3% on 2016-02-05
• gwern estimated 20% on 2016-02-07
• danielfilan estimated 3% on 2016-02-08
• ChristianKl estimated 2% on 2016-02-08
• Temeraire estimated 4% on 2016-02-11
• equivrel estimated 15% on 2016-02-14
• gwern said “Jeb has officially dropped out of the race: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35624420 and I doubt he’ll stage a convention floor fight…” on 2016-02-21
• jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-21.