Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-06-17
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3a1pr3/donald_trump_announces_2016_presidential_run/cs9uvee?context=3 bet with KarthusMain. They get $15 if it is Bush, I get $25 if it isn’t. ” on 2015-06-17
• RandomThinker estimated 45% and said “how’d you feel about my Bush v. Clinton prediction now :) http://predictionbook.com/predictions/9551” on 2015-06-17
• jasticE estimated 40% on 2015-06-18
• jesselevine estimated 30% and said “So hard with republican primaries these days” on 2015-06-19
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “USA made the father the president, then the brother, Jeb!’s time is now.” on 2015-06-19
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/115987 for probabiliy that he will be the President. ” on 2015-06-19
• David estimated 30% on 2015-06-20
• EloiseRosen estimated 50% on 2015-06-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2015-06-25
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “USA voted in the father and the son. Divine birthright, it’s time for Jeb!” on 2015-07-02
• David estimated 50% on 2015-07-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Prediction Markets: Jeb Has Best Chance of Winning Nominationhttps://www.newsmax.com/Politics/prediction-markets-jeb-bush-predictwise-nomination/2015/06/16/id/650719/” on 2015-07-04
• btrettel said “Best chance does not mean 100% chance. That article gives Jeb Bush a 31% probability of winning, which is actually lower than almost all probabilities given here. You are very overconfident.” on 2015-07-04
• NathanMcKnight estimated 35% on 2015-08-23
• Andrew MacFie estimated 20% on 2015-09-02
• Idrinkitup estimated 85% on 2015-11-11
• Andrew MacFie estimated 15% on 2015-12-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “Front runner fallacyIn november 1975, one year before the obscure Georgia governor Jimmy Carter was elected president, according to the polls, voters’ top choices were Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts (23 %). ” on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/12/the-front-runner-fallacy/413173/” on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “The only way he could lose is if he wasn’t Bush. They voted in his brother and Dad, face it, this is time for JEB!” on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3y9ie4/is_everyone_underestimating_jeb_bushs_chances/” on 2015-12-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “< 1%” on 2016-01-23
• PseudonymousUser said “hope you’ve learned something from this Raahul” on 2016-02-21
• jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-21.