A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
- gwern estimated 10% on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “~3m for IVF; ~9m for pregnancy; figure 1-6m for post-birth followup/abnormalities. So 1y+ from start of process to announcement. CRISPR only just got good enough to be feasible for human edits, and the enzymes/knowledge need to diffuse. ” on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “Area moves fast but does still take time. 6m? 19m total. So we can start to expect CRISPR babies maybe Sep 2017 without assumption of aggressive efforts (which could already be happening)?” on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “note: June date is to allow time for delayed announcements. CRISPR edits can be for any reason, from eye color to intelligence to rare inherited genetic disease. This does not include TALENS” on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “Note also that it’s possible for babies to be born with CRISPR edits but for that to not become public knowledge ever.” on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “by 2018: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177111 2019: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177111 2020: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177111 these shortcircuit” on 2016-02-07
- gwern said “hm. some sort of overlap. odd. real links: 2018 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177114 2019 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177115 2020: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177111” on 2016-02-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-02-07
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-02-08
- PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2016-02-08
- themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-02-09
- jesselevine estimated 5% on 2016-02-13
- aarongertler estimated 5% on 2016-02-19
- themusicgod1 estimated 23% on 2016-03-11
- themusicgod1 said “of course there’s patents involved gumming everything up.” on 2016-03-11
- artir estimated 5% on 2016-03-13
- Andrew MacFie estimated 9% on 2016-04-18
- gwern estimated 7% on 2016-06-20
- leo_grint estimated 5% on 2016-11-19
- pkfalu92 estimated 2% and said “off target effects are a concern. Attempted? Possibly. Successful? Unlikely.” on 2017-05-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2018-06-01.