A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.

• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2016-02-09
• JoshuaZ said “Continuing Gwern’s prediction set http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177111 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177110 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177115 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177114” on 2016-02-09
• gwern estimated 75% on 2016-02-09
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “The entire process of a drug from lab to this point may take approximately 12 to 18 years (but not always), often costing over $1 billion. Yeah, right.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research” on 2016-02-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 40% on 2016-03-11
• daccount10 estimated 5% on 2017-01-22
• BaesTheorem estimated 65% on 2017-08-19
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-09-02
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-14.
• NickN   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-08-19.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-12-05.