By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb.

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm#irannuclear” on 2010-09-27
• datadataeverywhere estimated 60% on 2010-09-30
• Houshalter estimated 30% on 2010-10-01
• gimpf estimated 25% on 2010-12-12
• gwern said “cf by 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2032” on 2011-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2011-01-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-11-17
• smijer estimated 5% and said “Assuming this refers to successful nuclear test. Estimation for wielding nuclear weapon in hostility approaches zero.” on 2012-01-11
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.