A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020.

Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.

• trishume estimated 15% on 2016-11-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 9% and said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3235http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5552http://predictionbook.com/predictions/58962http://predictionbook.com/predictions/69377” on 2016-11-10
• penten estimated 5% on 2016-11-10
• jesseh estimated 10% on 2016-11-10
• Lachann estimated 35% on 2016-11-11
• Lachann estimated 20% on 2016-11-11
• Michael Dickens estimated 4% on 2016-11-12
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2016-11-15
• Osuniev estimated 1% on 2016-11-21
• Osuniev estimated 1% on 2016-11-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 14% on 2016-12-24
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-16.