'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-10-26
• gwern said “http://www.arthurcclarke.net/?scifi=3” on 2010-10-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating. Not happening. ” on 2011-11-18
• kilobug estimated 5% on 2011-11-18
• Pablo estimated 1% on 2012-10-02
• gwern estimated 4% and said “for more consistency with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1522” on 2012-10-02
• Pablo said “Are we interpreting this prediction as stating that humans will land on Mars in 2021 or in 2021 or before? I was assuming the first interpretation, but given the estimates it seems that most other users were assuming the second.” on 2012-10-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-08-06
• Medea estimated 1% on 2015-10-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-10-14
• danielfilan estimated 1% on 2015-10-14
• NathanMcKnight estimated 2% and said “I don’t see any space program far enough along to land on Mars in the next 6 years. ” on 2015-12-07
• PipFoweraker estimated 1% on 2016-01-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-01-17
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 1% on 2016-02-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 2% on 2016-03-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-03-11
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-08
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-01-13
• telegrafista estimated 0% on 2019-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-04-12
• krazemon estimated 1% on 2019-05-11
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-05-27
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• n99 estimated 0% on 2022-10-28
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.