By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern estimated 15% and said “be consistent with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1374” on 2011-01-01
• gimpf estimated 8% on 2011-01-09
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 25% on 2011-04-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-05-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-05-24
• Konkvistador estimated 10% on 2011-07-21
• Jach estimated 15% on 2011-08-18
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 2% on 2011-09-04
• army1987 estimated 95% on 2011-10-03
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% on 2011-10-13
• Dogmudgeon   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-03.
• Dogmudgeon   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-03.
• Dogmudgeon estimated 5% and said “HIGHLY unlikely. These countries are among the MOST dependent on the EEC’s support.” on 2011-11-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-11-03
• chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-11-05
• NathanMcKnight said “Does it count if they are kicked out? ” on 2011-11-12
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-01.