At least one current member will drop out of the Euro.

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• Matt Newport estimated 70% on 2010-06-11
• Matt Newport changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-16” and made the prediction on 2010-06-11
• Matt Newport changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-17” and made the prediction on 2010-06-11
• JFE estimated 25% on 2010-07-02
• gwern estimated 85% and said “takes a long time to convert, and EU’s greek bailout demonstrates resolve.” on 2010-07-29
• gwern estimated 15% and said “hm, my estimate seems to be the wrong way around. retrying” on 2010-09-27
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-13
• gwern estimated 20% and said “see more specific one naming countries: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2031” on 2011-01-01
• Michael Stevens estimated 30% on 2011-08-05
• gwern said “intrade: any drop out now at 13% http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713738” on 2011-08-14
• Jach estimated 20% on 2011-08-18
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 4% on 2011-09-04
• Artis estimated 59% on 2011-11-07
• Artis estimated 42% on 2011-11-07
• velocirhymer estimated 1% on 2011-11-13
• NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2011-11-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2011-11-28
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2011-12-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-12-02
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 0% and said “Not within the next two days (and barely more than epsilon by the end of the year).” on 2011-12-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-12-14
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-17.