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HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.

Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

  • 75th estimated 65% on 2013-07-13
  • 75th said “I think there’s a good chance that if Amelia could have killed Narcissa any time she wanted, she wouldn’t have done it at precisely the opportune moment to make Voldemort abandon the idea of taking further hostages..” on 2013-07-13
  • jasticE estimated 70% on 2013-07-13
  • Gurkenglas estimated 15% on 2013-07-14
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “closely related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5418 (50% because reflecting more on moody’s claim Dumbledore would never ‘crack’)” on 2013-07-14
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-02” and changed their prediction from “<i>HP MoR:</i> Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-02” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-03” and changed their prediction from “<em>HP MoR:</em> Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-03” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-04” and changed their prediction from “'HP MoR': Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • 75th changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-04” and changed their prediction from “HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her.” on 2013-07-17
  • curtis95112 estimated 20% on 2013-07-25
  • linkhyrule5 estimated 60% on 2013-07-26
  • mjr estimated 50% on 2013-07-26
  • JayDee estimated 20% on 2013-08-21
  • player_03 estimated 25% on 2014-04-26
  • 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.