Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-14.

• gwern estimated 4% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://capitolcommentary.com/2011/01/01/capitol-commentary-2011-predictions/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “see more reasonable general prediction that he will simply leave in some way: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2036” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “why so low? because its such a specific and unlikely sequence of events which don’t have to happen in this exact fashion. he could be assassinated!” on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-14.