Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenberg/2010/11/29/an-interview-with-wikileaks-julian-assange/” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “WL could be so busy with cables all through 2011, but it seems unlikely to me. I think they’ll release it somewhere in the 2nd half” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “cf insurance file release in 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2038” on 2011-01-01
• gwern said “prediction the bank will be Bank of America: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2040 (terminates later than this one; short-circuit it upon release)” on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-01-03
• gimpf estimated 90% on 2011-01-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2011-01-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 28% on 2011-06-11
• fergus estimated 20% on 2011-08-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2011-08-21
• gwern estimated 5% and said “looks like the defectors may’ve taken the BoA file with them and then destroyed it: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/08/wikileaks-documents-destroyed/ (reads like they did it out of spite, to me…)” on 2011-08-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2011-08-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Updating due to document destruction and time without leak” on 2011-08-22
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.