China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025.

Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31

• najdorf estimated 80% on 2021-04-09
• Medea estimated 15% on 2021-04-09
• scatterspace estimated 4% on 2021-06-19
• omni estimated 60% on 2021-07-23
• niconiconi estimated 30% and said “See also: my negative prediction https://predictionbook.com/predictions/201435” on 2021-08-15
• gallerdude estimated 33% on 2021-08-18
• bbb estimated 1% on 2021-10-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% and said “Maybe if they had a pretextual basis for it they might. ” on 2021-10-13
• Toadface estimated 25% on 2021-10-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2021-10-31
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% on 2021-11-10
• jacobgreenleaf estimated 5% on 2021-11-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 21% on 2022-05-01
• n99 estimated 1% and said “No proper invasion of the main island.” on 2022-10-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 18% on 2022-10-28
• Reinersaltaccount estimated 12% and said “#politics” on 2023-03-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2023-03-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2023-03-23