SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.

Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04

• gwern estimated 70% on 2013-10-04
• Tuxedage estimated 50% and said “50” on 2013-10-04
• gwern said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/21588 for details” on 2013-10-05
• Josh Holland estimated 3% on 2015-09-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Not happening in 12 days. ” on 2015-09-22
• gwern said “this one is tricky. I estimated 600k based on the official commissions. but then they seized all that money off ulbricht’s laptop because he wrote down the passphrase/uencrypted & the trial documents indicate SR1 leaked money like a sieve” on 2015-10-26
• gwern said “overall, I think they did get all the bitcoins Ulbricht still had and this should be marked right and my closure on the other one reversed” on 2015-10-26
• JoshuaZ said “This seems to come down a lot to interpretation, but you made the initial prediction so no objection if you judge it right. ” on 2015-10-26
• JoshuaZ said “While you are back here, can you maybe go withdraw http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1587? ” on 2015-10-26