Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-11-23
• gwern said “details: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22195” on 2013-11-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2013-11-24
• sdr estimated 4% on 2013-11-24
• kuudes said “Given gwern has judged http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22195 to be wrong, this also should be wrong.” on 2015-09-20
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-09-20.