Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

• Ben Doherty estimated 80% on 2011-03-22
• Nic_Smith estimated 73% and said “Simply following Intrade on this one.” on 2011-03-23
• gwern said “At this rate, I’m not even sure how one would judge it. The Intrade rules don’t help.” on 2011-03-23
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=746813” on 2011-03-23
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 98% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ said “Intrade called correct this prediction already. Variant version here also already marked as correct: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2402 . tags [Libya][politics][war]” on 2011-09-04
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-21.