Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “see short-term fall prediction: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2628” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “don’t agree it’ll fall this much. fair amount of interest and people will have bargain hunting mindset with the $4 peak recently” on 2011-05-01
• gwern said “Looking very bad for this prediction; the question is now more like will it be past $20/btc when this comes due rather than will it be below $1…” on 2011-06-05
• gwern said “last mtgox price: 20.15. marking wrong.” on 2011-06-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-12.